Publications

2026 Strength Over Peace: Venezuela, Iran, and the Dicey Politics of Military Intervention Jeffrey A. Friedman · ForeignAffairs.com — 2025 Dealing with Uncertainty and Cognitive Biases in International Politics: A Critical Dialogue Jeffrey A. Friedman · Political Psychology 1 2025 The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials Jeffrey A. Friedman · Texas National Security Review 8 2024 Americans Love a Tough Guy: Why Trump Won on Foreign Policy—And What Democrats Can Learn From Him Jeffrey A. Friedman · ForeignAffairs.com — 2024 Defining Rationality in Security Studies: Expected Utility, Theory-Driven Reasoning, and the Vietnam War Jeffrey A. Friedman · Critical Review 1 2024 Strategy is Only Partly an Illusion: ‘Relative Foresight’ as an Objective Standard for Evaluating Foreign Policy Competence Jeffrey A. Friedman · Foreign Policy Analysis 1 2024 The Myth of a Bipartisan Golden Age for U.S. Foreign Policy: The Truman-Eisenhower Consensus Remains Jeffrey A. Friedman · International Security 5 2024 The Myth that Foreign Policy Doesn’t Matter in Presidential Elections Jeffrey A. Friedman · ForeignAffairs.com — 2023 How the ‘Commander-in-Chief Test’ Distorts the Politics of U.S. Foreign Policy Jeffrey A. Friedman · NationalInterest.org · needs review — 2023 Issue-Image Tradeoffs and the Politics of Foreign Policy: How Leaders Use Foreign Policy Positions to Shape their Personal Images Jeffrey A. Friedman · World Politics 9 2023 Obstacles to Harnessing Analytic Innovation in Foreign Policy Analysis: A Case Study of Crowdsourcing in the U.S. Intelligence Community Jeffrey A. Friedman · Intelligence and National Security 8 2023 Progressive Grand Strategy: A Synthesis and Critique Jeffrey A. Friedman · Journal of Global Security Studies 5 2023 The Commander-in-Chief Test: Public Opinion and the Politics of Image-Making in U.S. Foreign Policy Jeffrey A. Friedman · Cornell University Press · needs review 16 2023 The Politics of Looking Strong Jeffrey A. Friedman · ForeignAffairs.com — 2022 Is U.S. Grand Strategy Dead? The Political Foundations of Deep Engagement After Donald Trump Jeffrey A. Friedman · International Affairs 21 2021 False Beliefs, the Myth of ‘Post-Truth,’and the Need for a Capacious Political Epistemology Jeffrey A. Friedman · Political Epistemology · Scholar only 5 2021 Political Epistemology Jeffrey A. Friedman · Scholar only — 2019 Improving the Accuracy of Geopolitical Risk Assessments Jeffrey A. Friedman · The Future of Risk Management 8 2019 Priorities for Preventive Action: Explaining Americans’ Divergent Reactions to 100 Public Risks Jeffrey A. Friedman · American Journal of Political Science 46 2019 War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics Jeffrey A. Friedman · Oxford University Press · needs review 84 2018 Analytic Confidence in Political Decision Making: Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals Jeffrey A. Friedman · Political Psychology 34 2018 The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament Jeffrey A. Friedman · International Studies Quarterly 90 2017 Behavioral Consequences of Probabilistic Precision: Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals Jeffrey A. Friedman · International Organization 46 2017 Jeffrey A. Friedman Jeffrey A. Friedman · International Organization · Scholar only 2 2017 Making Tradeoffs without Assessing Probabilities: The Costs and Benefits of Vague Information in National Security Decision Making Jeffrey A. Friedman · The Sword’s Other Edge: Tradeoffs in the Pursuit of Military Effectiveness 0 2016 Why assessing estimative accuracy is feasible and desirable Jeffrey A. Friedman · Intelligence and National Security · Scholar only · needs review 27 2016 Why Evaluating Estimative Accuracy is Feasible and Desirable Jeffrey A. Friedman · Intelligence & National Security · needs review 16 2015 Handling and Mishandling Estimative Probability: Likelihood, Confidence, and the Search for Bin Laden Jeffrey A. Friedman · Intelligence and National Security 77 2015 Using Power Laws to Estimate Conflict Size Jeffrey A. Friedman · Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 2015 Why Quantitative Probability Assessments are Empirically Justifiable in Foreign Policy Analysis Jeffrey A. Friedman · Foreign Policy Analysis · Scholar only 2 2014 Why Did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007? Jeffrey A. Friedman · The New Counter-insurgency Era in Critical Perspective · needs review 26 2013 Correspondence: Assessing the Synergy Thesis in Iraq Jeffrey A. Friedman · International Security 18 2013 Stephen Biddle, Jeffrey A. Friedman, and Jacob N. Shapiro Reply Jeffrey A. Friedman · International Security · Scholar only — 2012 Assessing Uncertainty in Intelligence Jeffrey A. Friedman · Intelligence and National Security 133 2012 Civil War Intervention and the Problem of Iraq Jeffrey A. Friedman · International Studies Quarterly 35 2012 Testing the Surge: Why Did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007? Jeffrey A. Friedman · International Security · needs review 364 2011 Manpower and Counterinsurgency: Empirical Foundations for Theory and Doctrine Jeffrey A. Friedman · Security Studies 78 2011 The 2006 Lebanon Campaign Jeffrey A. Friedman · Hybrid Warfare and Transnational Threats: Perspectives for an Era of Persistent Conflicts — 2008 The 2006 Lebanon Campaign and the Future of Warfare: Implications for Army and Defense Policy Jeffrey A. Friedman · Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College 182 2008 The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies Jeffrey A. Friedman · Perspectives on Politics · Scholar only — 2003 Vague Probability Assessments in National Security Decision Making: Exploring the Justifications for a Remarkably Uncontroversial Practice Jeffrey A. Friedman · Perspectives on Politics · Scholar only —