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Academic

Andrew Gelman

Academic

RankDistinguished

As of2026 · CV

DepartmentColumbia Political Science

UniversityColumbia

FieldPolitical Science

ORCID0000-0002-6975-2601

Scholarprofile

Totals

Publications511

Citations153,189

h-index141 · Scholar

Citations per year in post4,255.2

Years in post36 from the CV positions

Coverage

Works with a count419 of 511

Share82%

Positions

Higgins Professor of Statistics, Columbia Uni…2017–

Alliance Visiting Professor, Sciences Po, Par…2009–2010

Visiting Professor, Department of Statistics,…2008–2012

Founding Director, Applied Statistics Center,…2006–

Professor, Department of Political Science, C…2002–

Professor, Department of Statistics, Columbia…2000–

Faculty Fellow, Institute for Social and Econ…1999–

Founding Director, Quantitative Methods in So…1998–2002

and 4 more

Top venues 174 venues

The 8 holding the most of these works; 166 more hold at least one.

CHANCE27

The American Statistician25

Statistical Science22

Bayesian Analysis19

Journal of the American Statistical Associati…18

Journal of Computational and Graphical Statis…13

arXiv (Cornell University)9

Proceedings of the National Academy of Scienc…8

Publications per year

Works this academic published in each year, by the year each work appeared; an undated work is in no year, and a work two colleagues wrote counts for each of them. The kind, works and year filters decide which works are here at all.

Citations per year

Citations received in each year, from this academic’s verified Scholar profile, which counts every citation to everything they ever wrote: no publication filter reaches this line - not the kinds, not the works switch, not the year window on publication - and no journal weight either. It is a profile total, so it does not match the works listed below.

Publications 511 works

Every work these filters select, most cited first and the works with no count at the end: a work nobody has a figure for is unknown, never a zero to be ranked among the works that have one, and it prints an em dash. Each figure is that work’s own citations - Scholar’s count where there is one, else OpenAlex’s - and is not weighted.

Year	Title	Venue	Kind	Citations
1992	Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences (with discussion and rejoinder)	Statistical Science	article	23,227
2017	Stan: A probabilistic programming language	Journal of Statistical Software	article	10,846
1998	General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations	Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics	article	9,319
2014	The no-U-turn sampler: Adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo	arXiv (Cornell University)	article	8,438
2017	Practical Bayesian model evaluation using leave-one-out cross-validation and WAIC	Statistics and Computing	article	7,838
2006	Prior distributions for hierarchical variance parameters	Bayesian Analysis	article	6,489
1996	Posterior predictive assessment of model ﬁtness via realized discrepancies (with discussion and rejoinder)	Statistica Sinica	article	3,527
2008	Scaling regression inputs by dividing by two standard deviations	Statistics in Medicine	article	3,161
2021	Rank-normalization, folding, and localization: An improved R-hat for assessing convergence of MCMC	Bayesian Analysis	article	3,065
2014	Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models	Statistics and Computing	article	3,039
2008	A weakly informative default prior distribution for logistic and other regression models	The Annals of Applied Statistics	article	2,992
1997	Weak convergence and optimal scaling of random walk Metropolis algorithms	The Annals of Applied Probability	article	2,796
2019	Why high-order polynomials should not be used in regression discontinuity designs	Journal of Business and Economic Statistics	article	2,692
2005	R2WinBUGS: a package for running WinBUGS from R	Journal of Statistical Software	article	2,180
2016	Increasing transparency through a multiverse analysis	Perspectives on Psychological Science	article	1,938
2014	Beyond power calculations: Assessing Type S (sign) and Type M (magnitude) errors	Perspectives on Psychological Science	article	1,874
2012	Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons	Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness	article	1,855
2006	The diﬀerence between “signiﬁcant” and “not signiﬁcant” is not itself statistically signiﬁcant	The American Statistician	article	1,701
2021	Bayesian statistics and modelling	Nature Reviews Methods Primers	article	1,628
2019	Visualization in Bayesian workﬂow (with discussion and rejoinder)	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statisti…	article	1,519
1998	Simulating normalizing constants: From importance sampling to bridge sampling to path sampling	Statistical Science	article	1,465
2008	Partisans without constraint: Political polarization and trends in American public opinion	American Journal of Sociology	article	1,449
2014	The statistical crisis in science	American Scientist	article	1,415
2007	An analysis of the NYPD’s stop-and-frisk policy in the context of claims of racial bias	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	1,413
2019	Abandon statistical signiﬁcance	HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe)	article	1,394
2013	The garden of forking paths: Why multiple comparisons can be a problem, even when there is no “fishing expedition” or “p-hacking” and the research hypothesis w…	—	article	1,393
2005	Analysis of variance: Why it is more important than ever (with discussion and rejoinder)	The Annals of Statistics	article	1,377
1993	Why are American Presidential election campaign polls so variable when votes are so predictable?	British Journal of Political Science	article	1,356
2018	R-squared for Bayesian regression models	The American Statistician	article	1,207
2017	Automatic diﬀerentiation variational inference	arXiv (Cornell University)	article	1,207
2013	Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics (with discussion and rejoinder)	British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology	article	1,119
1990	Estimating Incumbency Advantage Without Bias	American Journal of Political Science	article	1,117
1998	Markov chain Monte Carlo in practice: A roundtable discussion	The American Statistician	article	1,012
2007	Struggles with Survey Weighting and Regression Modeling	Statistical Science	article	1,002
2006	Multilevel modeling: What it can and cannot do	Technometrics	article	907
2018	Using stacking to average Bayesian predictive distributions (with discussion and rejoinder)	Bayesian Analysis	article	896
2017	Measurement error and the replication crisis	Science	article	867
2015	Stan: A probabilistic programming language for Bayesian inference and optimization	Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics	article	840
2017	The prior can often only be understood in the context of the likelihood	Entropy	article	806
2013	A Nondegenerate Penalized Likelihood Estimator for Variance Parameters in Multilevel Models	Psychometrika	article	730
2011	Multiple imputation with diagnostics (mi) in R: Opening windows into the black box	Journal of Statistical Software	article	666
2004	Bayesian multilevel estimation with poststratiﬁcation: state-level estimates from national polls	Political Analysis	article	663
2024	Pareto smoothed importance sampling	arXiv (Cornell University)	article	659
2015	Forecasting elections with non-representative polls	International Journal of Forecasting	article	630
2003	Spatial variability of arsenic in 6000 tube wells in a 25 km2 area of Bangladesh	Water Resources Research	article	568
2018	Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences	article	558
2006	Validation of software for Bayesian models using posterior quantiles	Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics	article	510
1997	Poststratification into many categories using hierarchical logistic regression	Survey methodology	article	504
1996	Physiological pharmacokinetic analysis using population modeling and informative prior distributions	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	485
2007	Voting as a rational choice: Why and how people vote to improve the well-being of others	Rationality and Society	article	481
2000	Type S error rates for classical and Bayesian single and multiple comparison procedures	Computational Statistics	article	450
1994	Enhancing democracy through legislative redistricting	American Political Science Review	article	448
2006	Bayesian measures of explained variance and pooling in multilevel (hierarchical) models	Technometrics	article	441
2011	Segregation in social networks based on acquaintanceship and trust	American Journal of Sociology	article	432
1994	A uniﬁed model for evaluating electoral systems and redistricting plans	American Journal of Political Science	article	408
2008	Rich state, poor state, red state, blue state: What’s the matter with Connecticut?	Quarterly Journal of Political Science	article	404
2004	Parameterization and Bayesian modeling	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	394
2008	Objections to Bayesian statistics (with discussion and rejoinder)	Bayesian Analysis	article	387
2008	Diagnostics for multivariate imputations	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied…	article	362
2003	A Bayesian formulation of exploratory data analysis and goodness-of-ﬁt testing	International Statistical Review	article	358
2017	Beyond subjective and objective in statistics (with discussion and rejoinder)	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statisti…	article	354
2005	Practical issues in implementing and understanding Bayesian ideal point estimation	Political Analysis	article	352
1996	Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in biostatistics	Statistical Methods in Medical Research	article	341
2004	Exploratory data analysis for complex models (with discussion and rejoinder)	Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics	article	340
2002	Promotion of well-switching to mitigate the arsenic crisis in Bangladesh	PubMed	article	329
2013	P-values and statistical practice	Epidemiology	article	307
2006	How many people do you know in prison?: Using overdispersion in count data to estimate social structure in networks	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	304
2009	Splitting a predictor at the upper quarter or third and the lower quarter or third	The American Statistician	article	294
2002	Let’s practice what we preach: Turning tables into graphs	The American Statistician	article	293
2010	Economic disparities and life satisfaction in European regions	Social Indicators Research	article	277
2019	Bayesian hierarchical spatial models: Implementing the Besag York Mollié model in Stan	Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology	article	270
2013	Deep interactions with MRP: Election turnout and voting patterns among small electoral subgroups	American Journal of Political Science	article	266
2018	The statistical signiﬁcance ﬁlter leads to overconﬁdent expectations of replicability	Journal of Memory and Language	article	257
2013	Two simple examples for understanding posterior p-values whose distributions are far from uniform	Electronic Journal of Statistics	article	255
1991	Systemic consequences of incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections	American Journal of Political Science	article	251
2021	Community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England: Results from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey Pilot	The Lancet Public Health	article	239
2020	Expectation propagation as a way of life: A framework for Bayesian inference on partitioned data	Aaltodoc (Aalto University)	article	236
1999	Not Asked and Not Answered: Multiple Imputation for Multiple Surveys	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	227
2011	Causality and statistical learning	American Journal of Sociology	article	220
2009	Of beauty, sex, and power: statistical challenges in estimating small eﬀects	American Scientist	article	220
2004	Standard voting power indexes don’t work: An empirical analysis	British Journal of Political Science	article	214
2004	Reliability of a commercial kit to test groundwater for arsenic in Bangladesh	Environmental Science & Technology	article	210
2022	No reason to expect large and consistent eﬀects of nudge interventions	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences	article	208
2020	A Consensus-based Transparency Checklist	Nature Human Behaviour	article	206
2015	The connection between varying treatment eﬀects and the crisis of unreplicable research: A Bayesian perspective	Journal of Management	article	204
2007	Average predictive comparisons for models with nonlinearity, interactions, and variance com- ponents	Sociological Methodology	article	201
2000	Diagnostic checks for discrete-data regression models using posterior predictive simulations	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied…	article	200
2018	The failure of null hypothesis signiﬁcance testing when studying incremental changes, and what to do about it	Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin	article	195
2023	The Great Society, Reagan’s revolution, and generations of presidential voting	American Journal of Political Science	article	183
2010	Adaptively scaling the Metropolis algorithm using expected squared jumped distance	SSRN Electronic Journal	article	183
2020	Bayesian analysis of tests with unknown speciﬁcity and sensitivity	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied…	article	182
2018	You need 16 times the sample size to estimate an interaction than to estimate a main effect	—	article	180
2005	Multiple imputation for model checking: Completed-data plots with missing and latent data	Biometrics	article	178
1999	All maps of parameter estimates are misleading	Statistics in Medicine	article	178
1995	Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research. Discussion of “Bayesian model selection in social research,” by A. Raftery	Sociological Methodology	article	178
2002	The mathematics and statistics of voting power	Statistical Science	article	176
2016	The mythical swing voter	Quarterly Journal of Political Science	article	173
2012	What is the probability your vote will make a diﬀerence?	Economic Inquiry	article	173
1990	Estimating the electoral consequences of legislative redistricting	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	171
1993	Characterizing a joint probability distribution by conditionals	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statisti…	article	169
2014	Weakly informative prior for point estimation of covariance matrices in hierarchical models	Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics	article	165
1998	Estimating the probability of events that have never occurred: When is your vote decisive?	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	164
2014	On the stationary distribution of iterative imputations	Biometrika	article	162
2014	Multiple imputation for continuous and categorical data: Comparing joint and conditional ap- proaches	Political Analysis	article	151
1997	Walking to school and traﬃc exposure in Australian children	Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health	article	151
2019	Large scale replication projects in contemporary psychological research	The American Statistician	article	149
2017	Five ways to fix statistics	Nature	article	147
2018	Disentangling bias and variance in election polls	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	146
2004	A broken system: The persistent pattern of reversals of death sentences in the United States	Journal of Empirical Legal Studies	article	146
2016	The problems with p-values are not just with p-values	The American Statistician	article	145
1995	Pre-election survey methodology: Details from nine polling organizations, 1988 and 1992	Public Opinion Quarterly	article	145
2003	Assessing the implementation and effects of a trauma-focused intervention for youths in residential treatment	Psychiatric Quarterly	article	140
2013	Infovis and statistical graphics: Diﬀerent goals, diﬀerent looks (with discussion and rejoinder)	Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics	article	137
2010	Income inequality and partisan voting in the United States	Social Science Quarterly	article	135
2001	Models, assumptions, and model checking in ecological regressions	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statisti…	article	135
2001	Alternative models for longitudinal binary outcome data: A case study on the choice, interpretation and checking of multilevel models for longitudinal binary o…	Biostatistics	article	133
2008	Using redundant parameters to ﬁt hierarchical models	Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics	article	130
2017	Some natural solutions to the p-value communication problem—and why they won’t work	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	126
2019	Are conﬁdence intervals better termed “uncertainty intervals”?	BMJ	article	124
2021	What are the most important statistical ideas of the past 50 years?	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	123
2019	Don’t calculate post-hoc power using observed estimate of eﬀect size	Annals of Surgery	article	120
1992	Iterative and non-iterative simulation algorithms	—	article	119
2015	Bayesian nonparametric weighted sampling inference	Bayesian Analysis	article	116
1996	Bayesian prediction of mean indoor radon concentrations for Minnesota counties	Health Physics	article	116
2025	Visualizing distributions of covariance matrices	Journal of Data Science Statistics and Visualisation	article	114
2025	Simulation-based calibration checking for Bayesian computation: The choice of test quantities shapes sensitivity	Bayesian Analysis	article	107
2022	Stacking for non-mixing Bayesian computations: The curse and blessing of multimodal posteriors	arXiv (Cornell University)	article	107
1996	Population toxicokinetics of tetrachloroethylene	Archives of Toxicology	article	105
2003	A Bayesian approach to the selection and testing of latent class models	Statistica Sinica	article	100
2009	Bayes, Jeffreys, Prior Distributions and the Philosophy of Statistics	Columbia Academic Commons (Columbia University)	article	97
2022	Pathﬁnder: Parallel quasi-Newton variational inference	arXiv (Cornell University)	article	96
2016	Age-aggregation bias in mortality trends	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences	article	96
2006	An Experimental Study of Storable Votes	Games and Economic Behavior	article	96
2022	Bayesian hierarchical stacking: Some models are (somewhere) useful	Bayesian Analysis	article	95
2021	Designing for interactive exploratory data analysis requires theories of graphical inference (with discussion and rejoinder)	Harvard Data Science Review	article	91
2011	Induction and deduction in Bayesian data analysis	RePEc: Research Papers in Economics	article	90
2005	Sampling for Bayesian computation with large datasets	SSRN Electronic Journal	article	90
2021	How to embrace variation and accept uncertainty in linguistic and psycholinguistic data analysis	Linguistics	article	88
2018	The Millennium Villages Project: A retrospective, observational, endline evaluation	The Lancet Global Health	article	87
2008	Estimating Incumbency Advantage and its Variation,as an Example of a Before-After Study	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	87
2019	Limitations of “Limitations of Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation for model selection.”	Computational Brain & Behavior	article	86
2021	Know your population and know your model: Using model-based regression and poststratiﬁcation to generalize ﬁndings beyond the observed sample	Psychological Methods	article	85
2016	A Bayesian bird’s eye view of ‘Replications of important results in social pscyhology.’	Royal Society Open Science	article	83
1991	A note on bivariate distributions that are conditionally normal	The American Statistician	article	83
2020	Discussion points for Bayesian inference	Nature Human Behaviour	article	81
2004	Bayesian analysis of serial dilution assays	Biometrics	article	81
2021	Improving multilevel regression and poststratiﬁcation with structured priors	Bayesian Analysis	article	80
2010	Bayesian combination of state polls and election forecasts	Political Analysis	article	78
2002	You can load a die but you can’t bias a coin	The American Statistician	article	77
2005	Two-stage regression and multilevel modeling: a commentary	Political Analysis	article	75
2021	Holes in Bayesian statistics	Journal of Physics G Nuclear and Particle Physics	article	73
2014	When do stories work? Evidence and illustration in the social sciences	Sociological Methods & Research	article	73
2015	Hierarchical models for estimating state and demographic trends in U.S. death penalty public opinion	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statisti…	article	71
2015	Evidence on the deleterious impact of sustained use of polynomial regression on causal infer- ence	Research & Politics	article	71
2017	Exploring the relationships between USMLE performance and disciplinary action in practice: A validity study of score inferences from a licensure examination	Academic Medicine	article	70
2007	Discussion of “Bayesian checking of the second levels of hierarchical models,” by M. J. Bayarri and M. E. Castellanos	Statistical Science	article	67
1999	Analysis of local decisions using hierarchical modeling, applied to home radon measurement and remediation (with disussion)	Statistical Science	article	67
2003	A method for estimating design-based sampling variances for surveys with weighting, post-stratification, and raking	Journal of Official Statistics	article	66
2020	Bayesian hierarchical weighting adjustment and survey inference	arXiv (Cornell University)	article	64
1996	Bayesian model-building by pure thought: Some principles and examples	Statistica Sinica	article	64
1995	Method of moments using Monte Carlo simulation	Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics	article	64
2009	Correlations and multiple comparisons in functional imaging: a statistical perspective	Perspectives on Psychological Science	article	63
2021	A simple explanation for declining temperature sensitivity with warming	Global Change Biology	article	61
2010	Public opinion on health care reform	The Forum	article	61
2024	A new look at p-values for randomized clinical trials	NEJM Evidence	article	60
2015	Incorporating the sampling design in weighting adjustments for panel attrition	Statistics in Medicine	article	59
2011	Why tables are really much better than graphs (with discussion and rejoinder)	Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics	article	59
1998	Some issues in monitoring convergence of iterative simulations	—	article	59
2017	The statistical crisis in science: How is it relevant to clinical neuropsychology?	The Clinical Neuropsychologist	article	58
2006	The boxer, the wrestler, and the coin ﬂip: A paradox of robust Bayesian inference and belief functions	The American Statistician	article	57
2003	Regression modeling and meta-analysis for decision making: A cost-benefit analysis of incentives in telephone surveys	Journal of Business and Economic Statistics	article	57
2024	Past, present, and future of software for Bayesian inference	Statistical Science	article	56
2018	Bayesian inference under cluster sampling with probability proportional to size	arXiv (Cornell University)	article	56
1999	Optimal design for a study of butadiene toxicokinetics in humans	Toxicological Sciences	article	56
2013	“Not only defended but also applied”: The perceived absurdity of Bayesian inference (with discussion and rejoinder)	The American Statistician	article	55
2024	Nested R-hat: Assessing the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo when running many short chains	Bayesian Analysis	article	54
2008	Estimating incumbency advantage and its variation, as an example of a before/after study (with discussion and rejoinder)	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	54
1987	Subboundary-free zone-melt recrystallization of thin-ﬁlm silicon	Applied Physics Letters	article	54
2015	A model-based approach to climate reconstruction using tree-ring data	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	53
2013	Rates and correlates of HIV and STI infection among homeless women	AIDS and Behavior	article	53
2015	Diﬃculty of selecting among multilevel models using predictive accuracy	Statistics and Its Interface	article	51
2014	Discussion: Difficulties in making inferences about scientific truth from distributions of published p-values	Biostatistics	article	51
2019	Multiple perspectives on inference for two simple statistical scenarios	The American Statistician	article	50
2017	19 things we learned from the 2016 election (with discussion and rejoinder)	Statistics and Public Policy	article	50
2008	A Simple Scheme to Improve the Efficiency of Referenda	Journal of Public Economics	article	50
2007	Letter to the editors regarding some papers of Dr. Satoshi Kanazawa	Journal of Theoretical Biology	article	48
2017	Honesty and transparency are not enough	CHANCE	article	47
2010	Bayesian statistics then and now	Statistical Science	article	47
2021	Accounting for uncertainty during a pandemic	Patterns	article	46
2019	Childhood obesity intervention studies: A narrative review and guide for investigators, authors, editors, reviewers, journalists, and readers to guard against…	Obesity Reviews	article	46
2018	Ethics in statistical practice and communication: Five recommendations	Significance	article	46
1994	Bayesian computation for parametric models of heteroscedasticity in the linear model	Medical Entomology and Zoology	article	46
1984	The eﬀects of solar ﬂares on single event upset rates	IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science	article	46
2020	Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts	Judgment and Decision Making	article	45
2020	An updated dynamic Bayesian forecasting model for the 2020 election	Harvard Data Science Review	article	45
2015	Simulation-eﬃcient shortest probability intervals	Statistics and Computing	article	45
2020	Voter registration databases and MRP: Toward the use of large scale databases in public opinion research	Political Analysis	article	43
2018	Gaydar and the fallacy of decontextualized measurement	Sociological Science	article	43
2006	Targeting low-arsenic groundwater with mobile-phone technology in Araihazar, Bangladesh	PubMed	article	40
2004	Direct data manipulation for local decision analysis, as applied to the problem of arsenic in drinking water from tube wells in Bangladesh	Risk Analysis	article	40
2013	Preregistration of studies and mock reports	Political Analysis	article	39
2005	Comment: Fuzzy and Bayesian p-Values and u-Values	Statistical Science	article	39
2005	A course on teaching statistics at the university level	The American Statistician	article	38
2001	Using conditional distributions for missing-data imputation. Discussion of “Conditionally specified distributions” by B. Arnold et al.	Statistical Science	article	38
2021	Failure and success in political polling and election forecasting	Statistics and Public Policy	article	37
2012	Understanding persuasion and activation in presidential campaigns: The random walk and mean-reversion models	Presidential Studies Quarterly	article	37
2007	Manipulating and summarizing posterior simulations using random variable objects	Statistics and Computing	article	37
2005	Probabilistic feature analysis of facial perception of emotions	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied…	article	37
2001	Post-stratification without population level information on the post-stratifying variable, with application to political polling	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	37
2025	The piranha problem: Large eﬀects swimming in a small pond	Notices of the American Mathematical Society	article	36
2022	A proposal for informative default priors scaled by the standard error of estimates	The American Statistician	article	36
2020	Type M error might explain Weisburd’s Paradox	Journal of Quantitative Criminology	article	36
2015	Statistics and the crisis of scientiﬁc replication	Significance	article	36
2008	Predicting and dissecting the seats-votes curve in the 2006 U.S. House election	PS Political Science & Politics	article	35
2014	Revised evidence for statistical standards	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences	article	34
2014	The AAA tranche of subprime science	CHANCE	article	32
2018	Beneﬁts and limitations of randomized controlled trials. Discussion of “Understanding and misunderstanding randomized controlled trials,” by Angus Deaton and N…	Social Science & Medicine	article	31
2018	Bayesian aggregation of average data: An application in drug development	The Annals of Applied Statistics	article	31
2006	Output assessment for Monte Carlo simulations via the score statistic	Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics	article	31
2002	A probability model for golf putting	Teaching Statistics	article	30
1999	Evaluating and using statistical methods in the social sciences. Discussion of “A critique of the Bayesian information criterion,” by D. Weakliem	Sociological Methods & Research	article	30
2024	Using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) in a multilevel regression and poststratiﬁcation (MRP) workﬂow: A cautionary tale	Statistics in Medicine	article	29
2014	How Bayesian analysis cracked the red-state, blue-state problem	Statistical Science	article	29
2000	Some class-participation demonstrations for introductory probability and statistics	Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics	article	29
2003	Forming voting blocs and coalitions as a prisoner’s dilemma: A possible theoretical explanation for political instability	Contributions in Economic Analysis & Policy	article	28
1992	[Practical Markov Chain Monte Carlo]: Rejoinder: Replication without Contrition	Statistical Science	article	28
2018	Don’t characterize replications as successes or failures. Discussion of “Making replication mainstream,” by Rolf A. Zwaan et al.	Behavioral and Brain Sciences	article	27
2001	[Conditionally specified distributions: An introduction]: comment	Statistical Science	article	27
2023	Toward a taxonomy of trust for probabilistic machine learning	Science Advances	article	26
2020	Fallout of lead over Paris from the 2019 Notre-Dame cathedral ﬁre	GeoHealth	article	26
2014	The twentieth-century reversal: How did the Republican states switch to the Democrats and vice versa?	Statistics and Public Policy	article	26
2024	Bayesian workﬂow for time-varying transmission in stratiﬁed compartmental infectious disease transmission models	PLoS Computational Biology	article	25
2023	Generically partisan: Polarization in political communication	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences	article	25
2019	Post-hoc power using observed estimate of eﬀect size is too noisy to be useful	Annals of Surgery	article	25
2014	Thinking of doing a list experiment? Here’sa list of reasons why you should think again	—	article	25
2013	A practical guide to measuring social structure using indirectly observed network data	Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice	article	25
2021	Social penumbras predict political attitudes	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences	article	24
2017	Fitting Bayesian item response models in Stata and Stan	The Stata Journal Promoting communications on statistics an…	article	24
2008	Vote for charity’s sake	The Economists Voice	article	23
2006	Weighted classical variogram estimation for data with clustering	Technometrics	article	23
2024	Causal quartets: Diﬀerent ways to attain the same average treatment eﬀect	The American Statistician	article	22
2020	Laplace’s Theories of Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics and Biases	Statistical Science	article	22
2025	Artiﬁcial intelligence and aesthetic judgment	arXiv (Cornell University)	article	21
2023	Inference from nonrandom samples using Bayesian machine learning	Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology	article	21
2019	The experiment is just as important as the likelihood in understanding the prior: A cautionary note on robust cognitive modeling	Computational Brain & Behavior	article	21
2012	Estimating partisan bias of the electoral college under proposed changes in elector apportion- ment	Statistics Politics and Policy	article	21
2007	The New York City Puerto Rican asthma project: Study design, methods, and baseline results	Journal of Asthma	article	21
1998	Improving upon probability weighting for household size	Public Opinion Quarterly	article	21
1991	The precision of positron emission tomography: Theory and measurement	Journal of Cerebral Blood Flow & Metabolism	article	21
2012	Avoiding Boundary Estimates in Linear Mixed Models Through Weakly Informative Priors	Collection of Biostatistics Research Archive	article	20
2012	Ethics and statistics: Ethics and the statistical use of prior information	CHANCE	article	20
2001	Bayesian inference with probability matrix decomposition models	Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics	article	19
1998	Student projects on statistical literacy and the media	The American Statistician	article	19
2021	Routine hospital-based SARS-CoV-2 testing outperforms state-based data in predicting clinical burden	Epidemiology	article	18
2013	Inherent diﬃculties of non-Bayesian likelihood-based inference, as revealed by an examination of a recent book by Aitkin	Statistics & Risk Modeling	article	18
2013	Interrogating P-values	Journal of Mathematical Psychology	article	18
2000	A method for quantifying artifacts in mapping methods, illustrated by application to headbanging	Statistics in Medicine	article	18
2022	Selecting on statistical signiﬁcance and practical signiﬁcance is wrong	Journal of Information Technology	article	17
2013	It’s too hard to publish criticisms and obtain data for replication	CHANCE	article	17
2009	Bridges between deterministic and probabilistic models for binary data	Statistical Methodology	article	17
2008	Teaching Bayesian applied statistics to graduate students in political science, sociology, public health, education, economics, . . .	The American Statistician	article	17
1998	Some class-participation demonstrations for decision theory and Bayesian statistics	The American Statistician	article	17
2018	Do researchers anchor their beliefs on the outcome of an initial study? Testing the time- reversal heuristic	Experimental Psychology (formerly Zeitschrift für Experimen…	article	16
2007	Bayesian hierarchical classes analysis	Psychometrika	article	16
2012	Does quantum uncertainty have a place in everyday applied statistics? Discussion of “Can quantum probability provide a new direction for cognitive modeling?” b…	Behavioral and Brain Sciences	article	15
1997	Discussion of “Analysis of non-randomly censored ordered categorical longitudinal data from analgesic trials,” by L. B. Sheiner, S. L. Beal, and A. Dunne	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	15
2013	Red State/Blue State Divisions in the 2012 Presidential Election	The Forum	article	14
2012	Statisticians: When we teach, we don’t practice what we preach	CHANCE	article	14
—	Community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England from April to November, 2020: results from the ONS coronavirus infection survey. Lancet Public Health. 2021; 6 (1…	—	article	14
2024	How statistical challenges and misreadings of the literature combine to produce unreplicable science: An example from psychology	Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science	article	13
2022	Beyond vaccination rates: A synthetic random proxy metric of total SARS-CoV-2 immunity seroprevalence in the community	Epidemiology	article	13
2012	Ethics and the statistical use of prior information	CHANCE	article	13
2012	Statistics for sellers of cigarettes	CHANCE	article	13
2011	Going beyond the book: Toward critical reading in statistics teaching	Teaching Statistics	article	13
2025	A calibrated BISG for inferring race from surname and geolocation	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statisti…	article	12
2017	Introducing the StataStan Interface for Fast, Complex Bayesian Modeling Using Stan	The Stata Journal Promoting communications on statistics an…	article	12
2013	They’d rather be rigorous than right	CHANCE	article	12
2012	What do statistical p-values mean when the sample= the population	—	article	12
2007	Discussion on the paper by Handcock, Raftery and Tantrum	University of Groningen research database (University of Gr…	article	12
2004	Using image and curve registration for measuring the goodness of ﬁt of spatial and temporal predictions	Biometrics	article	12
2023	Bayesian spatial modelling of localised SARS-CoV-2 transmission through mobility networks across England	PLoS Computational Biology	article	11
2021	Research on registered report research	Nature Human Behaviour	article	11
2019	Objective Randomised Blinded Investigation With Optimal Medical Therapy of Angioplasty in Stable Angina (ORBITA) and coronary stents: A case study in the analy…	American Heart Journal	article	11
1986	Mat. Res. Soc. Symp. Proc.	MRS Proceedings	article	11
2011	Bayesian statistical pragmatism	Statistical Science	article	10
—	& Tipton, E.(2022). No reason to expect large and consistent effects of nudge interventions	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences	article	10
2025	Hierarchical Bayesian models to mitigate systematic disparities in prediction with proxy outcomes	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statisti…	article	9
2022	Criticism as asynchronous collaboration: An example from social science research	Stat	article	9
2021	Why did it take so many decades for the behavioral sciences to develop a sense of crisis around methodology and replication?	Journal of Methods and Measurement in the Social Sciences	article	9
2017	The 2008 election: A preregistered replication analysis	Statistics and Public Policy	article	9
2015	Statistics and research integrity	—	article	9
2008	The playing ﬁeld shifts: predicting the seats-votes curve in the 2008 U.S. House election	PS Political Science & Politics	article	9
2008	One vote, many Mexicos: Income and vote choice in the 1994, 2000, and 2006 presidential elections	—	article	9
2006	Rational voting and voter turnout	Rationality and Society	article	9
1998	Modeling differential nonresponse in sample surveys	—	article	9
2023	Who wants school vouchers in America? A comprehensive study using multilevel regression and poststratiﬁcation	Social Sciences	article	8
2022	Prediction scoring of data-driven discoveries for reproducible research	Statistics and Computing	article	8
2016	Questionable association between front boarding and air rage	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences	article	8
2016	Something’s odd about the political betting markets	—	article	8
2013	Tradeoffs in Information Graphics	Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics	article	8

The 300 most cited are listed; 211 more are not.