Jeffrey A. Friedman
Academic
Totals
Coverage
Positions
Top venues 16 venues
The 15 holding the most of these works; 1 more hold at least one.
Collaborators 1 collaborator
Over every shown department of this field, not only the ones the filters select. 1 of these 34 works are held by another academic here; the column adds to more than that, because a work three of them hold is a shared work with each of the other two.
| Collaborator | Department | Shared works |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Horowitz | Penn Political Science | 1 |
Publications per year
Works this academic published in each year, by the year each work appeared; an undated work is in no year, and a work two colleagues wrote counts for each of them. The publication type, works filters decide which works are here at all.
Citations per year
Citations received in each year, from this academic’s verified Scholar profile, which counts every citation to everything they ever wrote: no publication filter reaches this line - not the publication types, not the works switch, not the year window on publication - and no weight either. It is a profile total, so it does not match the works listed below.
Publications 34 works
Every work these filters select, most cited first and the works with no count at the end: a work nobody has a figure for is unknown, never a zero to be ranked among the works that have one, and it prints an em dash. Each figure is that work’s own citations - Scholar’s count where there is one, else OpenAlex’s - and is not weighted.
| Year | Title | Venue | Publication type | Citations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Testing the Surge: Why Did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007? | International Security | article | 364 |
| 2012 | Assessing Uncertainty in Intelligence | Intelligence & National Security | article | 133 |
| 2018 | The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament | International Studies Quarterly | article | 90 |
| 2019 | War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics | — | book | 84 |
| 2011 | Manpower and Counterinsurgency: Empirical Foundations for Theory and Doctrine | Security Studies | article | 78 |
| 2015 | Handling and Mishandling Estimative Probability: Likelihood, Confidence, and the Search for Bin Laden | Intelligence & National Security | article | 77 |
| 2015 | Using Power Laws to Estimate Conflict Size | Journal of Conflict Resolution | article | 51 |
| 2019 | Priorities for Preventive Action: Explaining Americans’ Divergent Reactions to 100 Public Risks | American Journal of Political Science | article | 46 |
| 2017 | Behavioral Consequences of Probabilistic Precision: Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals | International Organization | article | 46 |
| 2012 | Civil War Intervention and the Problem of Iraq | International Studies Quarterly | article | 35 |
| 2018 | Analytic Confidence in Political Decision Making: Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals | Political Psychology | article | 34 |
| 2016 | Why assessing estimative accuracy is feasible and desirable | Intelligence & National Security | article | 27 |
| 2022 | Is U.S. Grand Strategy Dead? The Political Foundations of Deep Engagement After Donald Trump | International Affairs | article | 21 |
| 2013 | Correspondence: Assessing the Synergy Thesis in Iraq | International Security | article | 18 |
| 2023 | The Commander-in-Chief Test: Public Opinion and the Politics of Image-Making in U.S. Foreign Policy | Cornell University Press eBooks | book | 16 |
| 2016 | Why Evaluating Estimative Accuracy is Feasible and Desirable | Intelligence & National Security | article | 16 |
| 2023 | Issue-Image Tradeoffs and the Politics of Foreign Policy: How Leaders Use Foreign Policy Positions to Shape their Personal Images | World Politics | article | 9 |
| 2025 | The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials | Texas National Security Review | article | 8 |
| 2023 | Obstacles to Harnessing Analytic Innovation in Foreign Policy Analysis: A Case Study of Crowdsourcing in the U.S. Intelligence Community | Intelligence & National Security | article | 8 |
| 2024 | The Myth of a Bipartisan Golden Age for U.S. Foreign Policy: The Truman-Eisenhower Consensus Remains | International Security | article | 5 |
| 2023 | Progressive Grand Strategy: A Synthesis and Critique | Journal of Global Security Studies | article | 5 |
| 2021 | False Beliefs, the Myth of ‘Post-Truth,’and the Need for a Capacious Political Epistemology | — | article | 5 |
| 2017 | Jeffrey A. Friedman | International Organization | article | 2 |
| 2025 | Dealing with Uncertainty and Cognitive Biases in International Politics: A Critical Dialogue | Political Psychology | article | 1 |
| 2024 | Defining Rationality in Security Studies: Expected Utility, Theory-Driven Reasoning, and the Vietnam War | Critical Review | article | 1 |
| 2024 | Strategy is Only Partly an Illusion: ‘Relative Foresight’ as an Objective Standard for Evaluating Foreign Policy Competence | Foreign Policy Analysis | article | 1 |
| 2026 | Strength Over Peace: Venezuela, Iran, and the Dicey Politics of Military Intervention | — | article | — |
| 2024 | Americans Love a Tough Guy: Why Trump Won on Foreign Policy—And What Democrats Can Learn From Him | — | article | — |
| 2024 | The Myth that Foreign Policy Doesn’t Matter in Presidential Elections | — | article | — |
| 2023 | How the ‘Commander-in-Chief Test’ Distorts the Politics of U.S. Foreign Policy | Cornell University Press eBooks | article | — |
| 2023 | The Politics of Looking Strong | — | article | — |
| 2013 | Stephen Biddle, Jeffrey A. Friedman, and Jacob N. Shapiro Reply | International Security | article | — |
| 2008 | The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies | Perspectives on Politics | article | — |
| 2003 | Vague Probability Assessments in National Security Decision Making: Exploring the Justifications for a Remarkably Uncontroversial Practice | Perspectives on Politics | article | — |