Andrew Gelman
Academic
Totals
Coverage
Positions
Top venues 46 venues
The 8 holding the most of these works; 38 more hold at least one.
Publications per year
Works this academic published in each year, by the year each work appeared; an undated work is in no year, and a work two colleagues wrote counts for each of them. The kind, works and year filters decide which works are here at all.
Citations per year
Citations received in each year, from this academic’s verified Scholar profile, which counts every citation to everything they ever wrote: no publication filter reaches this line - not the kinds, not the works switch, not the year window on publication - and no journal weight either. It is a profile total, so it does not match the works listed below.
Publications 76 works
Every work these filters select, most cited first and the works with no count at the end: a work nobody has a figure for is unknown, never a zero to be ranked among the works that have one, and it prints an em dash. Each figure is that work’s own citations - Scholar’s count where there is one, else OpenAlex’s - and is not weighted.
| Year | Title | Venue | Kind | Citations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Bayesian Workflow | — | book | 751 |
| 2024 | Pareto smoothed importance sampling | arXiv (Cornell University) | article | 659 |
| 2022 | No reason to expect large and consistent effects of nudge interventions | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | article | 208 |
| 2023 | The Great Society, Reagan’s revolution, and generations of presidential voting | American Journal of Political Science | article | 183 |
| 2025 | Visualizing distributions of covariance matrices | Journal of Data Science Statistics and Visualisation | article | 114 |
| 2025 | Simulation-based calibration checking for Bayesian computation: The choice of test quantities shapes sensitivity | Bayesian Analysis | article | 107 |
| 2022 | Stacking for non-mixing Bayesian computations: The curse and blessing of multimodal posteriors | arXiv (Cornell University) | article | 107 |
| 2022 | Pathfinder: Parallel quasi-Newton variational inference | arXiv (Cornell University) | article | 96 |
| 2022 | Bayesian hierarchical stacking: Some models are (somewhere) useful | Bayesian Analysis | article | 95 |
| 2024 | A new look at p-values for randomized clinical trials | NEJM Evidence | article | 60 |
| 2024 | Past, present, and future of software for Bayesian inference | Statistical Science | article | 56 |
| 2024 | Nested R-hat: Assessing the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo when running many short chains | Bayesian Analysis | article | 54 |
| 2025 | The piranha problem: Large effects swimming in a small pond | Notices of the American Mathematical Society | article | 36 |
| 2022 | A proposal for informative default priors scaled by the standard error of estimates | The American Statistician | article | 36 |
| 2024 | Using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) in a multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) workflow: A cautionary tale | Statistics in Medicine | article | 29 |
| 2023 | Toward a taxonomy of trust for probabilistic machine learning | Science Advances | article | 26 |
| 2024 | Bayesian workflow for time-varying transmission in stratified compartmental infectious disease transmission models | PLoS Computational Biology | article | 25 |
| 2023 | Generically partisan: Polarization in political communication | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | article | 25 |
| 2024 | Causal quartets: Different ways to attain the same average treatment effect | The American Statistician | article | 22 |
| 2025 | Artificial intelligence and aesthetic judgment | arXiv (Cornell University) | article | 21 |
| 2023 | Inference from nonrandom samples using Bayesian machine learning | Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology | article | 21 |
| 2022 | Selecting on statistical significance and practical significance is wrong | Journal of Information Technology | article | 17 |
| — | Community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England from April to November, 2020: results from the ONS coronavirus infection survey. Lancet Public Health. 2021; 6 (1… | — | article | 14 |
| 2024 | How statistical challenges and misreadings of the literature combine to produce unreplicable science: An example from psychology | Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science | article | 13 |
| 2022 | Beyond vaccination rates: A synthetic random proxy metric of total SARS-CoV-2 immunity seroprevalence in the community | Epidemiology | article | 13 |
| 2025 | A calibrated BISG for inferring race from surname and geolocation | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statisti… | article | 12 |
| 2023 | Bayesian spatial modelling of localised SARS-CoV-2 transmission through mobility networks across England | PLoS Computational Biology | article | 11 |
| — | & Tipton, E.(2022). No reason to expect large and consistent effects of nudge interventions | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | article | 10 |
| 2025 | Hierarchical Bayesian models to mitigate systematic disparities in prediction with proxy outcomes | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statisti… | article | 9 |
| 2022 | Criticism as asynchronous collaboration: An example from social science research | Stat | article | 9 |
| 2023 | Who wants school vouchers in America? A comprehensive study using multilevel regression and poststratification | Social Sciences | article | 8 |
| 2022 | Prediction scoring of data-driven discoveries for reproducible research | Statistics and Computing | article | 8 |
| 2024 | Grappling with uncertainty in forecasting the 2024 U.S. presidential election | Harvard Data Science Review | article | 7 |
| 2024 | In pursuit of campus-wide data literacy: A guide to developing a statistics course for students in non-quantitative fields | Journal of Statistics and Data Science Education | article | 7 |
| — | Joseph Bafumi and Jeronimo Cortina. 2010. Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do | — | book | 7 |
| 2023 | “Two truths and a lie” as a class-participation activity | The American Statistician | article | 6 |
| 2026 | FDA draft guidance for the use of Bayesian methods in clinical trials | JAMA | article | 5 |
| 2023 | Commentaries on “Beyond statistical significance: Five principles for the new era of data analysis and reporting” | Journal of Consumer Psychology | article | 5 |
| 2022 | Reconciling evaluations of the Millennium Villages Project | Statistics and Public Policy | article | 5 |
| 2022 | The development of Bayesian statistics | Journal of the Indian Institute of Science | article | 5 |
| 2025 | Meta-analysis with a single study | Statistical Methods in Medical Research | article | 4 |
| 2024 | Active Statistics: Stories, Games, Problems, and Hands-on Demonstrations for Applied Regression and Causal Inference | Cambridge University Press eBooks | book | 4 |
| 2024 | Before data analysis: Additional recommendations for designing experiments to learn about the world | Journal of Consumer Psychology | article | 4 |
| 2022 | Mismatch between scientific theories and statistical models | Behavioral and Brain Sciences | article | 4 |
| 2022 | A fast linear regression via SVD and marginalization | Computational Statistics | article | 4 |
| 2025 | Normative scientific conflict is unavoidable and should be welcomed | Theory and Society | article | 3 |
| 2025 | Interrogating the “cargo cult science” metaphor | Theory and Society | article | 3 |
| 2025 | Rethinking approaches to analysis of global randomised controlled trials | BMJ | article | 3 |
| 2025 | Multilevel regression and poststratification using margins of poststratifiers: Improving inference for HIV health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic | Statistics in Medicine | article | 3 |
| 2023 | What is a standard error? | Journal of Econometrics | article | 3 |
| 2023 | Fast methods for posterior inference of two-group normal-normal models | Bayesian Analysis | article | 3 |
| 2026 | Adaptive sequential Monte Carlo for structured cross validation in Bayesian hierarchical models | Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics | article | 1 |
| 2026 | Multilevel regression and poststratification interface: an application to track community-level COVID-19 viral transmission | Population Health Metrics | article | 1 |
| 2026 | Adjusting for underreporting of child protective services involvement in the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study and assessing its empirical implicati… | Social Service Review | article | 1 |
| 2025 | Russian roulette: The need for stochastic potential outcomes when utilities depend on counterfactuals | Biometrika | article | 1 |
| 2025 | A multilevel Bayesian approach to climate-fueled migration and conflict | Scientific Reports | article | 1 |
| 2024 | Statistics as a social activity: Attitudes toward amalgamating evidence | Entropy | article | 1 |
| 2024 | Hopes and limitations of reproducible statistics and machine learning | Harvard Data Science Review | article | 1 |
| 2023 | Challenges in adjusting a survey that overrepresents people interested in politics | Harvard Data Science Review | article | 1 |
| 2023 | A chain as strong as its strongest link? Understanding the causes and consequences of biases arising from selective analysis and reporting of research results | Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness | article | 1 |
| 2022 | How should scientific journals handle “Big if true” submissions? | CHANCE | article | 1 |
| 2026 | Reanalysis of “Competition and innovation: An inverted-U relationship.” | Journal of Robustness Reports | article | 0 |
| 2026 | Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo, second edition | — | edited volume | 0 |
| 2026 | The ladder of abstraction in statistical graphics | The American Statistician | article | 0 |
| 2026 | Statistical workflow | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathemati… | article | 0 |
| 2025 | Letter to the editor | Perspectives on Psychological Science | article | 0 |
| 2024 | Why forecast an election that’s too close to call? | Nature | article | 0 |
| 2026 | Power analysis is essential: High-powered tests suggest minimal to no effect of rounded shapes on click-through rates | — | article | — |
| 2026 | This is the reason for external replication: Response to Aungle et al. (2026) | Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science | article | — |
| 2025 | Statistical graphics and comics: Parallel histories of visual storytelling | — | article | — |
| 2025 | Discussion of “Statistical exploration of the manifold hypothesis,” by N. Whiteley, A. Gray, and P. Rubin-Delanchy | — | article | — |
| 2025 | Stable adjustments in regression discontinuity | — | article | — |
| 2023 | I love this paper but it’s barely been noticed. Part of a collaborative article, “What are your most underappreciated works?” | — | article | — |
| 2023 | Gaussian Variational Approximations for High-dimensional State Space Models......................................... M. Quiroz, DJ Nott, and R. Kohn 989 Post-P… | Bayesian Analysis | article | — |
| 2023 | From visualization to sensification | — | article | — |
| 2022 | A Multilevel Bayesian Framework to Analyze Climate-Fueled Migration and Conflict | AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts | article | — |