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Academic

Andrew Gelman

Academic

RankDistinguished

As of2026 · CV

DepartmentColumbia Political Science

UniversityColumbia

FieldPolitical Science

ORCID0000-0002-6975-2601

Scholarprofile

Totals

Publications179

Citations43,760

h-index141 · Scholar

Citations per year in post1,215.6

Years in post36 from the CV positions

Coverage

Works with a count159 of 179

Share89%

Positions

Higgins Professor of Statistics, Columbia Uni…2017–

Alliance Visiting Professor, Sciences Po, Par…2009–2010

Visiting Professor, Department of Statistics,…2008–2012

Founding Director, Applied Statistics Center,…2006–

Professor, Department of Political Science, C…2002–

Professor, Department of Statistics, Columbia…2000–

Faculty Fellow, Institute for Social and Econ…1999–

Founding Director, Quantitative Methods in So…1998–2002

and 4 more

Top venues 91 venues

The 8 holding the most of these works; 83 more hold at least one.

Bayesian Analysis9

arXiv (Cornell University)7

Harvard Data Science Review7

The American Statistician7

CHANCE5

Proceedings of the National Academy of Scienc…5

Statistics and Public Policy5

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Seri…4

Publications per year

Works this academic published in each year, by the year each work appeared; an undated work is in no year, and a work two colleagues wrote counts for each of them. The kind, works and year filters decide which works are here at all.

Citations per year

Citations received in each year, from this academic’s verified Scholar profile, which counts every citation to everything they ever wrote: no publication filter reaches this line - not the kinds, not the works switch, not the year window on publication - and no journal weight either. It is a profile total, so it does not match the works listed below.

Publications 179 works

Every work these filters select, most cited first and the works with no count at the end: a work nobody has a figure for is unknown, never a zero to be ranked among the works that have one, and it prints an em dash. Each figure is that work’s own citations - Scholar’s count where there is one, else OpenAlex’s - and is not weighted.

Year	Title	Venue	Kind	Citations
2017	Stan: A probabilistic programming language	Journal of Statistical Software	article	10,846
2017	Practical Bayesian model evaluation using leave-one-out cross-validation and WAIC	Statistics and Computing	article	7,838
2021	Rank-normalization, folding, and localization: An improved R-hat for assessing convergence of MCMC	Bayesian Analysis	article	3,065
2019	Why high-order polynomials should not be used in regression discontinuity designs	Journal of Business and Economic Statistics	article	2,692
2021	Bayesian statistics and modelling	Nature Reviews Methods Primers	article	1,628
2019	Visualization in Bayesian workﬂow (with discussion and rejoinder)	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statisti…	article	1,519
2019	Abandon statistical signiﬁcance	HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe)	article	1,394
2018	R-squared for Bayesian regression models	The American Statistician	article	1,207
2017	Automatic diﬀerentiation variational inference	arXiv (Cornell University)	article	1,207
2020	Regression and Other Stories	Cambridge University Press eBooks	book	1,111
2018	Using stacking to average Bayesian predictive distributions (with discussion and rejoinder)	Bayesian Analysis	article	896
2017	Measurement error and the replication crisis	Science	article	867
2017	The prior can often only be understood in the context of the likelihood	Entropy	article	806
2026	Bayesian Workﬂow	—	book	751
2024	Pareto smoothed importance sampling	arXiv (Cornell University)	article	659
2018	Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences	article	558
2017	Beyond subjective and objective in statistics (with discussion and rejoinder)	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statisti…	article	354
2019	Bayesian hierarchical spatial models: Implementing the Besag York Mollié model in Stan	Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology	article	270
2018	The statistical signiﬁcance ﬁlter leads to overconﬁdent expectations of replicability	Journal of Memory and Language	article	257
2021	Community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England: Results from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey Pilot	The Lancet Public Health	article	239
2020	Expectation propagation as a way of life: A framework for Bayesian inference on partitioned data	Aaltodoc (Aalto University)	article	236
2022	No reason to expect large and consistent eﬀects of nudge interventions	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences	article	208
2020	A Consensus-based Transparency Checklist	Nature Human Behaviour	article	206
2018	Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Volume 5. Estimates for Installation- and Command-Level Risk of Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment…	RAND Corporation eBooks	book	204
2018	The failure of null hypothesis signiﬁcance testing when studying incremental changes, and what to do about it	Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin	article	195
2023	The Great Society, Reagan’s revolution, and generations of presidential voting	American Journal of Political Science	article	183
2020	Bayesian analysis of tests with unknown speciﬁcity and sensitivity	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied…	article	182
2018	You need 16 times the sample size to estimate an interaction than to estimate a main effect	—	article	180
2019	Large scale replication projects in contemporary psychological research	The American Statistician	article	149
2017	Five ways to fix statistics	Nature	article	147
2018	Disentangling bias and variance in election polls	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	146
2017	Some natural solutions to the p-value communication problem—and why they won’t work	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	126
2019	Are conﬁdence intervals better termed “uncertainty intervals”?	BMJ	article	124
2021	What are the most important statistical ideas of the past 50 years?	Journal of the American Statistical Association	article	123
2019	Don’t calculate post-hoc power using observed estimate of eﬀect size	Annals of Surgery	article	120
2025	Visualizing distributions of covariance matrices	Journal of Data Science Statistics and Visualisation	article	114
2025	Simulation-based calibration checking for Bayesian computation: The choice of test quantities shapes sensitivity	Bayesian Analysis	article	107
2022	Stacking for non-mixing Bayesian computations: The curse and blessing of multimodal posteriors	arXiv (Cornell University)	article	107
2022	Pathﬁnder: Parallel quasi-Newton variational inference	arXiv (Cornell University)	article	96
2022	Bayesian hierarchical stacking: Some models are (somewhere) useful	Bayesian Analysis	article	95
2021	Designing for interactive exploratory data analysis requires theories of graphical inference (with discussion and rejoinder)	Harvard Data Science Review	article	91
2021	How to embrace variation and accept uncertainty in linguistic and psycholinguistic data analysis	Linguistics	article	88
2018	The Millennium Villages Project: A retrospective, observational, endline evaluation	The Lancet Global Health	article	87
2019	Limitations of “Limitations of Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation for model selection.”	Computational Brain & Behavior	article	86
2021	Know your population and know your model: Using model-based regression and poststratiﬁcation to generalize ﬁndings beyond the observed sample	Psychological Methods	article	85
2020	Discussion points for Bayesian inference	Nature Human Behaviour	article	81
2021	Improving multilevel regression and poststratiﬁcation with structured priors	Bayesian Analysis	article	80
2021	Holes in Bayesian statistics	Journal of Physics G Nuclear and Particle Physics	article	73
2017	Exploring the relationships between USMLE performance and disciplinary action in practice: A validity study of score inferences from a licensure examination	Academic Medicine	article	70
2020	Bayesian hierarchical weighting adjustment and survey inference	arXiv (Cornell University)	article	64
2021	A simple explanation for declining temperature sensitivity with warming	Global Change Biology	article	61
2024	A new look at p-values for randomized clinical trials	NEJM Evidence	article	60
2017	The statistical crisis in science: How is it relevant to clinical neuropsychology?	The Clinical Neuropsychologist	article	58
2024	Past, present, and future of software for Bayesian inference	Statistical Science	article	56
2018	Bayesian inference under cluster sampling with probability proportional to size	arXiv (Cornell University)	article	56
2024	Nested R-hat: Assessing the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo when running many short chains	Bayesian Analysis	article	54
2019	Multiple perspectives on inference for two simple statistical scenarios	The American Statistician	article	50
2017	19 things we learned from the 2016 election (with discussion and rejoinder)	Statistics and Public Policy	article	50
2017	Honesty and transparency are not enough	CHANCE	article	47
2021	Accounting for uncertainty during a pandemic	Patterns	article	46
2019	Childhood obesity intervention studies: A narrative review and guide for investigators, authors, editors, reviewers, journalists, and readers to guard against…	Obesity Reviews	article	46
2018	Ethics in statistical practice and communication: Five recommendations	Significance	article	46
2020	Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts	Judgment and Decision Making	article	45
2020	An updated dynamic Bayesian forecasting model for the 2020 election	Harvard Data Science Review	article	45
2020	Voter registration databases and MRP: Toward the use of large scale databases in public opinion research	Political Analysis	article	43
2018	Gaydar and the fallacy of decontextualized measurement	Sociological Science	article	43
2021	Failure and success in political polling and election forecasting	Statistics and Public Policy	article	37
2025	The piranha problem: Large eﬀects swimming in a small pond	Notices of the American Mathematical Society	article	36
2022	A proposal for informative default priors scaled by the standard error of estimates	The American Statistician	article	36
2020	Type M error might explain Weisburd’s Paradox	Journal of Quantitative Criminology	article	36
2018	Beneﬁts and limitations of randomized controlled trials. Discussion of “Understanding and misunderstanding randomized controlled trials,” by Angus Deaton and N…	Social Science & Medicine	article	31
2018	Bayesian aggregation of average data: An application in drug development	The Annals of Applied Statistics	article	31
2024	Using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) in a multilevel regression and poststratiﬁcation (MRP) workﬂow: A cautionary tale	Statistics in Medicine	article	29
2018	Don’t characterize replications as successes or failures. Discussion of “Making replication mainstream,” by Rolf A. Zwaan et al.	Behavioral and Brain Sciences	article	27
2023	Toward a taxonomy of trust for probabilistic machine learning	Science Advances	article	26
2020	Fallout of lead over Paris from the 2019 Notre-Dame cathedral ﬁre	GeoHealth	article	26
2017	Teaching Statistics: A Bag of Tricks, second edition	Oxford University Press eBooks	book	26
2024	Bayesian workﬂow for time-varying transmission in stratiﬁed compartmental infectious disease transmission models	PLoS Computational Biology	article	25
2023	Generically partisan: Polarization in political communication	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences	article	25
2019	Post-hoc power using observed estimate of eﬀect size is too noisy to be useful	Annals of Surgery	article	25
2021	Social penumbras predict political attitudes	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences	article	24
2017	Fitting Bayesian item response models in Stata and Stan	The Stata Journal Promoting communications on statistics an…	article	24
2024	Causal quartets: Diﬀerent ways to attain the same average treatment eﬀect	The American Statistician	article	22
2020	Laplace’s Theories of Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics and Biases	Statistical Science	article	22
2025	Artiﬁcial intelligence and aesthetic judgment	arXiv (Cornell University)	article	21
2023	Inference from nonrandom samples using Bayesian machine learning	Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology	article	21
2019	The experiment is just as important as the likelihood in understanding the prior: A cautionary note on robust cognitive modeling	Computational Brain & Behavior	article	21
2021	Routine hospital-based SARS-CoV-2 testing outperforms state-based data in predicting clinical burden	Epidemiology	article	18
2022	Selecting on statistical signiﬁcance and practical signiﬁcance is wrong	Journal of Information Technology	article	17
2018	Do researchers anchor their beliefs on the outcome of an initial study? Testing the time- reversal heuristic	Experimental Psychology (formerly Zeitschrift für Experimen…	article	16
—	Community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England from April to November, 2020: results from the ONS coronavirus infection survey. Lancet Public Health. 2021; 6 (1…	—	article	14
2024	How statistical challenges and misreadings of the literature combine to produce unreplicable science: An example from psychology	Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science	article	13
2022	Beyond vaccination rates: A synthetic random proxy metric of total SARS-CoV-2 immunity seroprevalence in the community	Epidemiology	article	13
2025	A calibrated BISG for inferring race from surname and geolocation	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statisti…	article	12
2017	Introducing the StataStan Interface for Fast, Complex Bayesian Modeling Using Stan	The Stata Journal Promoting communications on statistics an…	article	12
2023	Bayesian spatial modelling of localised SARS-CoV-2 transmission through mobility networks across England	PLoS Computational Biology	article	11
2021	Research on registered report research	Nature Human Behaviour	article	11
2019	Objective Randomised Blinded Investigation With Optimal Medical Therapy of Angioplasty in Stable Angina (ORBITA) and coronary stents: A case study in the analy…	American Heart Journal	article	11
—	& Tipton, E.(2022). No reason to expect large and consistent effects of nudge interventions	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences	article	10
2025	Hierarchical Bayesian models to mitigate systematic disparities in prediction with proxy outcomes	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statisti…	article	9
2022	Criticism as asynchronous collaboration: An example from social science research	Stat	article	9
2021	Why did it take so many decades for the behavioral sciences to develop a sense of crisis around methodology and replication?	Journal of Methods and Measurement in the Social Sciences	article	9
2017	The 2008 election: A preregistered replication analysis	Statistics and Public Policy	article	9
2023	Who wants school vouchers in America? A comprehensive study using multilevel regression and poststratiﬁcation	Social Sciences	article	8
2022	Prediction scoring of data-driven discoveries for reproducible research	Statistics and Computing	article	8
2024	Grappling with uncertainty in forecasting the 2024 U.S. presidential election	Harvard Data Science Review	article	7
2024	In pursuit of campus-wide data literacy: A guide to developing a statistics course for students in non-quantitative ﬁelds	Journal of Statistics and Data Science Education	article	7
2021	Reflections on Breiman's Two Cultures of Statistical Modeling	Observational Studies	article	7
2018	How to think scientiﬁcally about scientists’ proposals for ﬁxing science	Socius Sociological Research for a Dynamic World	article	7
—	Joseph Bafumi and Jeronimo Cortina. 2010. Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do	—	book	7
2023	“Two truths and a lie” as a class-participation activity	The American Statistician	article	6
2021	Slamming the sham: A Bayesian model for adaptive adjustment with noisy control data	Statistics in Medicine	article	6
2020	Statistics as squid ink: How prominent researchers can get away with misrepresenting data	CHANCE	article	6
2026	FDA draft guidance for the use of Bayesian methods in clinical trials	JAMA	article	5
2023	Commentaries on “Beyond statistical significance: Five principles for the new era of data analysis and reporting”	Journal of Consumer Psychology	article	5
2022	Reconciling evaluations of the Millennium Villages Project	Statistics and Public Policy	article	5
2022	The development of Bayesian statistics	Journal of the Indian Institute of Science	article	5
2020	Evidence vs. truth	CHANCE	article	5
2019	Of chaos, storms and forking paths: the principles of uncertainty	Nature	article	5
2025	Meta-analysis with a single study	Statistical Methods in Medical Research	article	4
2024	Active Statistics: Stories, Games, Problems, and Hands-on Demonstrations for Applied Regression and Causal Inference	Cambridge University Press eBooks	book	4
2024	Before data analysis: Additional recommendations for designing experiments to learn about the world	Journal of Consumer Psychology	article	4
2022	Mismatch between scientiﬁc theories and statistical models	Behavioral and Brain Sciences	article	4
2022	A fast linear regression via SVD and marginalization	Computational Statistics	article	4
2019	The implementation of randomization requires corrected analyses. Comment on “Comprehensive nutritional and dietary intervention for autism spectrum disorder—A…	Nutrients	article	4
2019	When we make recommendations for scientiﬁc practice, we are (at best) acting as social scientists	European Journal of Clinical Investigation	article	4
2025	Normative scientiﬁc conﬂict is unavoidable and should be welcomed	Theory and Society	article	3
2025	Interrogating the “cargo cult science” metaphor	Theory and Society	article	3
2025	Rethinking approaches to analysis of global randomised controlled trials	BMJ	article	3
2025	Multilevel regression and poststratiﬁcation using margins of poststratiﬁers: Improving inference for HIV health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic	Statistics in Medicine	article	3
2023	What is a standard error?	Journal of Econometrics	article	3
2023	Fast methods for posterior inference of two-group normal-normal models	Bayesian Analysis	article	3
2020	Laplace’s theories of cognitive illusions, heuristics, and biases (with discussion and rejoinder)	Statistical Science	article	3
2017	Learning about networks using sampling	Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology	article	3
2021	Challenges in Incorporating Exploratory Data Analysis into Statistical Workflow	Harvard Data Science Review	article	2
2020	Using Bayesian analysis to account for uncertainty and adjust for bias in coronavirus sampling	—	article	2
2019	From Overconfidence in Research to Over Certainty in Policy Analysis: Can We Escape the Cycle of Hype and Disappointment	—	article	2
2026	Adaptive sequential Monte Carlo for structured cross validation in Bayesian hierarchical models	Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics	article	1
2026	Multilevel regression and poststratiﬁcation interface: an application to track community-level COVID-19 viral transmission	Population Health Metrics	article	1
2026	Adjusting for underreporting of child protective services involvement in the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study and assessing its empirical implicati…	Social Service Review	article	1
2025	Russian roulette: The need for stochastic potential outcomes when utilities depend on counterfactuals	Biometrika	article	1
2025	A multilevel Bayesian approach to climate-fueled migration and conﬂict	Scientific Reports	article	1
2024	Statistics as a social activity: Attitudes toward amalgamating evidence	Entropy	article	1
2024	Hopes and limitations of reproducible statistics and machine learning	Harvard Data Science Review	article	1
2023	Challenges in adjusting a survey that overrepresents people interested in politics	Harvard Data Science Review	article	1
2023	A chain as strong as its strongest link? Understanding the causes and consequences of biases arising from selective analysis and reporting of research results	Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness	article	1
2022	How should scientiﬁc journals handle “Big if true” submissions?	CHANCE	article	1
2020	Post-Election Interview with Andrew Gelman and G. Elliott Morris	Harvard Data Science Review	article	1
2018	Learning from and responding to statistical criticism	Observational Studies	article	1
2018	Scoring Model Predictions using Cross-Validation	—	article	1
2017	Consensus Monte Carlo using expectation propagation	Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics	article	1
2017	Validation of Software for Bayesian Models using Posterior Quantiles (vol 15, pg 675, 2006)	Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics	article	1
2026	Reanalysis of “Competition and innovation: An inverted-U relationship.”	Journal of Robustness Reports	article	0
2026	Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo, second edition	—	edited volume	0
2026	The ladder of abstraction in statistical graphics	The American Statistician	article	0
2026	Statistical workﬂow	Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathemati…	article	0
2025	Letter to the editor	Perspectives on Psychological Science	article	0
2024	Why forecast an election that’s too close to call?	Nature	article	0
2021	Ethical requirements of a research assistant who is concerned about the behavior of a supervisor	CHANCE	article	0
2026	Power analysis is essential: High-powered tests suggest minimal to no eﬀect of rounded shapes on click-through rates	—	article	—
2026	This is the reason for external replication: Response to Aungle et al. (2026)	Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science	article	—
2025	Statistical graphics and comics: Parallel histories of visual storytelling	—	article	—
2025	Discussion of “Statistical exploration of the manifold hypothesis,” by N. Whiteley, A. Gray, and P. Rubin-Delanchy	—	article	—
2025	Stable adjustments in regression discontinuity	—	article	—
2023	I love this paper but it’s barely been noticed. Part of a collaborative article, “What are your most underappreciated works?”	—	article	—
2023	Gaussian Variational Approximations for High-dimensional State Space Models......................................... M. Quiroz, DJ Nott, and R. Kohn 989 Post-P…	Bayesian Analysis	article	—
2023	From visualization to sensiﬁcation	—	article	—
2022	A Multilevel Bayesian Framework to Analyze Climate-Fueled Migration and Conflict	AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts	article	—
2021	Reﬂections on Lakatos’s “Proofs and Refutations.”	American Mathematical Monthly	article	—
2021	Mathematical Comfort Food	American Mathematical Monthly	article	—
2020	Lessons learned and remaining challenges for online seminars and conferences	—	article	—
2020	Data visualization as narrative	—	article	—
2020	Rubin, Don	—	book	—
2019	What statistics can’t tell us in the ﬁght over aﬃrmative action at Harvard	Boston Review	article	—
2019	Do Dice Play God? The Mathematics of Uncertainty	Nature	article	—
2018	Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Annex to Volume 5. Tabular Results from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study for Installation- and…	RAND Corporation eBooks	book	—
2018	The Millennium Villages Project: a retrospective, observational, endline evaluation (vol 6, pg e500, 2018)	The Lancet Global Health	article	—
2018	Bayesian Analysis	Bayesian Analysis	article	—
2017	Rejoinder: How Special was 2016?	Statistics and Public Policy	article	—